Let's pause a moment and pay our respects to a dead man walking. Beneath that chipmunk-toothed smile, I wouldn't be surprised if Dr. Howard Dean is choking down a scream louder than the one that cost him the nomination back in 2004. As Chairman of the DNC, Dean's future post-Super-Duper-Tuesday doesn't look very bright. I'm a big champion of Dean. His 50-state strategy was pooh-poohed by establishment Democrats until it started winning them districts and I think he's been a powerful and credible force for building the party beyond its usual (read: losing) comfort zone. Unfortunately, Dean's never gonna get a break-- and in 2008, he's in the hot seat again.
The problem is simple. It's now clear McCain is going to get the Republican nomination. Meanwhile Clinton and Obama continue to duke it out. In this sense, Super Duper Tuesday is a win for the Republicans. Presuming they can rally around McCain (which I think they will), Republicans have given themselves an edge over the Dems. While Obama and Clinton have at each other, McCain can have at them both. This plays into the worst stereotypes of the Democratic party-- that they are talkers and not doers, that they're the squabbling children to McCain's wizened maturity. It's unlikely either Barack or Hillary will concede and the reality is we are now seeing a Democratic nomination that will go on into the late Spring.
Add on top of this the specter of the "superdelegate". I can't think of a better way to suck the wind out of the excited Democratic base than for voters to find out all their energy and enthusiasm don't matter; that a bunch of Washington politicians will decide the nominee.
Somehow, Dean has to find a way to prevent these issues from sinking the eventual nominee, while not short circuiting the nomination process that will determine said nominee. My personal suggestion: Dean needs to have a "come to Jesus" moment with both candidates. It doesn't matter if they talk about their favorite Ben & Jerry's flavor; a closed door meeting with both of the candidates would show that the DNC is still in charge (even if it's not) and that there is a plan (even if there isn't). As fond as Hillary is of "letting the conversation continue", voters have a ceiling. I expect to see a strong desire among average folks to see a Democratic nominee sooner rather than later and unless the next week or two show sizable and decisive wins on one candidates side or another, that's just not going to happen.
I am speculating, and this is not something I favor at all, but if Obama and Clinton keep staying as evenly matched as they are, somebody will have to go to them and negotiate some sort of deal. I think an Obama /Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket is highly unlikely, but this is a highly unlikely election year. Neither candidate will do it themselves and Dean's the one who will be expected to try.
Dr. Dean may find that the adage "Patient, heal thyself" won't work on these two.
Labels: politics
