Are you as nervous about tomorrow's election as I am? This is easily this most important midterm election in modern history, but it may very well turn out to be the most important election of this century. While Bush 2000 and Bush '06 brought the President to power, the neocon Right would have continued to grow throughout those cycles even if Bush had lost. This election is not soley a referendum on Bush, but a referendum on American democracy itself.
If the Democrats take the House, it will be a monumental shift in how politics is conducted in Washington. This isn't because the Dems are necessarily more ethical and less beholden to special interests than the Republicans (though personally, I think they are), but because they will enter power with a mandate to reform. The only reason the Democrats will win tomorrow is because the American people want to see their national government run in a way that isn't so--well, skankaliciuous. If the people give the Dems the House, the Dems will hold the Bush administration accountable.
If the Dems lose (and this is, I think, still a very real possibility), it will be a disaster for this country. If the DNC can not win this election, it can't win any election. The party will fracture into pieces and the United States will fall under one-party rule. Does that sound alarmist? What do you think BushRove will say if the GOP manages to hold onto Congress? They'll view it as a blank check and an already corrupt and morally bankrupt Congress will simply shut the Democrats out.
Not that they haven't done that already.
Here's my take on how the Senate races will break tomorrow. Asterisk'd states are ones I've lived in (giving me that 'insider's edge' other political analysts only wish they had, oh yeah...)-
- Arizona - John Kyl will win. That Jim Pederson got any traction at all in this heavily Republican state is a sign of how far the GOP has slipped.
- Connecticut* - Surprise- unseating an incumbent is hard to do. Expect voters to say that Lieberman's too much a fixture to toss out.
- Maryland* - Ben Cardin and by a landslide. Had the RNCC not played the race card so badly in TN, Michael Steele might have had a chance. Actually, not really.
- Missouri- Don't you love Claire McCaskill? I know I do. Her and Obama should do a road show in 2008. She should win. Especially when she's running against creepmesiter Jim Talent. MO is my favorite Midwestern state to visit and I feel this year, it's gonna go blue.
- Montana- Conrad Burns should win this seat. He's a Republican and Montana loves loves loves Republicans. Unfortunately, he's also a blathering idiot. Jon Tester takes the state blue.
- New Jersey- The GOP really want you to think New Jersey is going to send a Republican to Washington. Fugghedaboiutit. Bob Menendez will win handily.
- Ohio* - Okay, this state hasn't been in play for a month, really. Which is amazing considering it's fucking Ohio. Is it unsportsmanlike to dance on the political grave of Mike DeWine? Nah.
- Pennsylvania- If there's only one good thing that comes out of tomorrow's election, it will be that Rick 'Homosexuality is Beastiality!' Santorum will be sent packing. Maybe he can go on a cruise with Ken Melmann after it's all over.
- Rhode Island*- I think pollsters are really underestimating Lincoln Chafee's popularity. Personally, I wish the guy would just cross the aisle. He's a great politician and unfortunately for the Dems, I don't see RI handing him a pink slip, war or not.
- Tennessee- I would like to think that Tennessee voters would see past the dirty tricks of the GOP and elect Harold Ford. I would also like to be served lobster every morning for the rest of my life. If the Dems win big tomorrow, the GOP may find its big tent collapsing. The result is that it'll become a regional conservative party. Want to know what region? Call me.
- Virginia- I really like Jim Webb. I think he's a smart guy and I think he's also a man of his convictions. That coupled with his military service is what will push him over the top tomorrow, though I'm sure George Allen will remember macaca til his dying day.
